ASEAN 6 GDP: Vietnam Maintains Lead as ASEAN Navigates Shocks of the Middle East Conflict

15 June 2026 — Economic growth across the ASEAN-6 in the first quarter of 2026 showed increasingly uneven trajectories as the region grappled with the rippling effects of the Middle East conflict. Vietnam once again led the region with garnering 7.83% in GDP growth, driven by a strong manufacturing base, record-high tourism arrivals, and a large increase in foreign direct investment. Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore grew by 5.61%, 5.3% and 4.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Philippines and Thailand posted the slowest growth among the ASEAN-6 economies, both at 2.8%. Thailand, however, improved from 2.5% growth in the previous quarter, while the Philippines sharply slowed from 3.0%. 

The disparate performance across ASEAN also points to how economies are applying different approaches to maintaining growth amid the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Economies heavily dependent on imported fuel, such as the Philippines, faced the greatest pressure as higher oil prices weakened the peso and accelerated inflation. In response, the government declared a State of National Energy Emergency, rolled out fuel-related subsidies, and accelerated infrastructure catch-up spending. Thailand adopted a more aggressive fiscal approach through a 400-billion-baht support package aimed at cushioning living costs and supporting the energy transition. Singapore, meanwhile, focused on monitoring risks to its trade-dependent economy as manufacturing activity began showing signs of moderation amid tightening global supply chains. In contrast, Vietnam and Indonesia were able to rely more heavily on domestic demand, public spending, manufacturing activity, tourism, and foreign investment to sustain growth despite rising geopolitical uncertainty. 

This economic update is led by  MBC’s Economy Program and is also in charge of economic briefings, economic dashboard, monthly inflation and labor releases, and quarterly GDP and ASEAN 6 reports.